[Shortlist] SISB Public Company Limited (SISB; SISB TB)
I decided to shortlist because of (a) under-recognised growth and (b) capital returns
Disclaimer: This is a record of my investment decisions, not financial advice. I may change my decisions without notice. Use this only for education and entertainment. Do not rely on this for your investment decisions.
About
Share price: THB 11.70
Market capitalisation: THB 10,998 (USD 352 mn)
Enterprise value (EV): THB 9,482 (USD 303 mn)
Average daily volume (ADV): THB 52 mn (USD 2 mn)
NTM P/E: 11x
Time spent: ~6 hours
My Decision
Shortlist
Background
SISB’s share price is now down around -70% from its peak in 2024. That’s -50% CAGR over 2 years. What happened?
In 2024, SISB traded at a rich valuation because the market sees it as a ‘high quality compounder’: 20% ROC, 26% ROE and 80% EPS growth in 2023. At NTM P/E ~48x, the market expected high growth that later turned out to be too optimistic. When doubts started surfacing, SISB started its descent. When SISB slightly reduced its guidance in August 2025, SISB continued its descent.
I shortlisted SISB. At today’s valuation, I believe the market is overlooking 2 factors:
1. Under-recognised growth
International school is underpenetrated in Thailand, and increasing.
Pricing uplift as SISB’s student cohort graduate into higher-fee secondary grades.
2. Capital returns
SISB will likely return more capital to shareholders as it passes its capex peak
Reflecting this, dividends nearly doubled in 2024, with the payout ratio rising from 23% in 2023 to 33% in 2024 and to 40% in the LTM.
In my Substack post, I walk through these 2 factors in detail and what I will focus on next.
For more analysis like this, click on the link below and subscribe to my Substack.
Business model
SISB operates 6 international schools in Thailand. It earns ~100% of its revenue from tuition fees and application enrolment fees in Thailand. Curriculum offered ranges from nursery/kindergarten to Grade 12.
Most customers are students aged between 2 and 18 years from high-income families. In Q3’25, number of students enrolled in SISB is 4,571. 71% of students are local. Of the 29% of students that are foreigners, 75% are Chinese.
The largest expense is cost of education (33% of revenue). This mainly consists of remuneration for teaching staff and cost of special/after-school activities.
SISB is the largest operator of international schools in Thailand. In Q3’25, SISB holds ~5.5% market share by number of students. The second player is Nord Anglia with 5.3% market share. It operates 3 premium British-style schools in Thailand. The third and fourth players are Shrewsbury (2.7%) and ISP (2.4%).
Relevant public comparables include China Education Group Holdings Limited (839; 839 HK) and MegaStudyEdu Co. Ltd (A215200; 215200 KS).
In the past 10 years, I estimate the Thai international school market grew by ~10% p.a. Number of students increased 6% p.a. while average revenue per student (ARPS) increased 4% p.a. International school enrolments in Thailand are rising because more Thai and expatriate families want English‑medium, globally recognised curricula and university pathways. ARPS outpaces inflation. International schools tend to enjoy strong pricing power, supported by high switching costs and the perception of superior educational quality.
My reasons
Under-recognised growth? The market appears to be underestimating SISB’s growth potential. SISB currently trades at an FCFF yield of ~10% on enterprise value (EV), implying an attractive premium of ~8 ppt over Thailand’s 10y government bond yield. This premium looks particularly compelling given my expectation that SISB can sustain high-single-digit (HSD) revenue growth and low-double-digit (LDD) EPS growth. My expectation is driven by two key factors: (a) SISB’s exposure to a still under‑penetrated international school market, and (b) meaningful ARPS uplift as its student base progressively graduates from primary into higher‑fee secondary grades.
Penetration of international schools in Thailand is growing. I estimated international school penetration rate ~0.35% in 2014. By 2024, this has doubled to ~0.70%. The increasing penetration rate is driven by rising income and desire for better education. Thais usually perceive international schools as superior.
Despite strong growth, Thailand’s international school penetration of 0.70% is still far below Malaysia at ~2% and Singapore at ~8%. As Thailand’s economy and middle class continue to develop, demand for international‑curriculum education should rise, leaving significant room for penetration to increase from today’s low base.
Notwithstanding this favourable growth potential, SISB’s share price has fallen by ~-70% since 2024. In my view, the market is overlooking SISB’s growth potential because it is fixated on the recent deceleration in student enrolment. Student numbers grew +35% in 2023 but slowed to +10% in 2024. In Q3’25, student number declined -1.4% QoQ. This was mainly due to a -2% QoQ drop in local students, which SISB attributed to the weak economic environment. Foreign students fell only -0.6% QoQ.
Prima facie, barring a severe and prolonged recession, I do not expect a material, sustained decline in student number. In much of Asia including Thailand, education is highly valued and typically among the last household expenditures to be cut, not least because switching schools is highly disruptive for children.
Encouragingly, enrolment has already stabilised and begun to recover, with student numbers reaching 4,600 in Q4’25, up +0.6% QoQ1. For 2026, SISB targets 5,000 number of students, revenue growth of at least 5% to 6%, and average tuition fee adjustments of 3% to 5%. I believe the 5% to 6% revenue growth target is too low: if student numbers rise from 4,600 to 5,000 by end‑2026, revenue would already grow ~9% even before any fee hikes, making LDD revenue growth a more realistic expectation. I hope to clarify this with management.
I expect a meaningful ARPS uplift as SISB’s student base progresses from primary into higher‑fee secondary grades. Most SISB students are currently in primary school (especially Primary 1–4), where annual tuition is about THB 500k–600k. In contrast, secondary school fees range from roughly THB 700k to THB 900k per year. As SISB anticipates most of these primary students will continue into its secondary school, ARPS should rise even without any explicit price increases, simply from the cohort mix shifting into higher‑fee grades.
Capital return? There is a good chance that SISB will return more capital to shareholders. Cash capex has peaked at THB 698 mn in 2023 and has already fallen to about THB 403 mn over the last twelve months (LTM). SISB’s campus development plan suggests capex will continue to decline and eventually stabilise at a level well below the current level, freeing up more cash for distributions. Reflecting this, dividends nearly doubled in 2024, with the payout ratio rising from 23% in 2023 to 33% in 2024 and to 40% on an LTM basis. With lower capex needs ahead, there is a strong likelihood that SISB will return more capital to shareholders.
Factors to focus on
Outlook on number of students? How high is the probability that international school penetration rate in Thailand will follow the path of other ASEAN countries like Malaysia and Singapore? What are the risks that penetration rate in Thailand will break its upward trend?
Exposure to foreign Chinese students? There is a perception that SISB is overly reliant on foreign Chinese students2 , particularly those who enrolled mainly to leave China rather than out of a strong preference for the school. This creates a risk that many could withdraw if their families leave Thailand.
This risk currently looks limited. As of Q3’25, about 71% of students are local and 9% are foreign non‑Chinese. Only 20% of all students are foreign Chinese. Moreover, the -1.4% QoQ decline in student numbers in Q3’25 was driven by local students (-2.2% QoQ). The number of foreign students fell only -0.6% QoQ.
Corporate tax exemption? Most of SISB’s profits are exempt from corporate income tax, which keeps its effective tax rate ~1% instead of the standard 20%. Thailand provides this tax exemption to encourage private investment in education capacity.
There is no current move by legislators to remove this benefit. However, this tax exemption is politically sensitive and could be challenged in the future. At SISB’s IPO in 2018, there were calls to review or remove its tax exemption, though eventually nothing happened3.
Nonetheless, in the unlikely event the tax exemption is removed, SISB remains attractive. Its FCFF yield on EV would fall to ~8%, which still offers an attractive 6% premium over Thailand 10y government bond.
Negative staff reviews? There were numerous negative online reviews by employees. For example, this Reddit post urges teachers to avoid SISB4. The poster portrays SISB as a fear‑driven school with weak academic integrity, unfair and discriminatory pay practices, heavy workloads and poor management.
However, there are also positive reviews. This post by a current SISB teacher expresses surprise over the school’s bad reputation online because their own experience has been very positive5. In the comments, many users speculate online reviews skew negative because unhappy teachers are more likely to post, and experiences can vary widely by campus, immediate leadership, timing, and a teacher’s previous school.
Nonetheless, I believe it is worth digging further into the negative reviews for anything that suggest significant pervasive issues.
For more analysis like this, subscribe to my Substack