[Pass] Genting Singapore Limited (G13; GENS SP)
Last week, you highlighted a potential opportunity in GENS. What’s your suggestion?
Pass GENS.
Initially, GENS looked like a good business with temporary headwinds.
Trends in receivable aging and contract liabilities suggest gaming revenue may perform better than expected in 2026.
However, the recovery may be short-lived.
Long-term outlook looks worse than expected. The government plans to redevelop Sentosa, the island on which GENS operates.
This will likely result in disruptions through 2045, and more competition.
Liquidity?
13 Oct 2026
Share price: SGD 0.61
Market capitalisation: SGD 7,299 mn (USD 5,700 mn)
Enterprise value (EV): SGD 4,351 mn (USD 3,398 mn)
Average daily volume (ADV): SGD 17 mn (USD 13 mn)
NTM P/E: 17x
What does GENS do?
GENS operates Resorts World Sentosa (RWS) in Singapore, one of the only two integrated resorts in Singapore. RWS operates on Sentosa, an island off the southern coast of Singapore.
Source: Google Maps (2026)
It earned SGD 2,452 mn revenue in 2025 (-3% YoY):
65% Gaming (-6% YoY)
9% Hotel rooms (-10%)
19% Attractions (+10%)
6% Other non-gaming (-3%)
Why do you think GENS’ long-term outlook will be worse-than-expected?
Investors seem to be too focused on quarterly changes in gaming market share. They are likely underestimating the long-term disruptions from The Greater Sentosa Master Plan (GSMP).
What’s the GSMP?
The GSMP is the government’s plan to upgrade Sentosa and link it with Pulau Brani, a nearby island. Right now, it is being used as a port. Pulau Brani will be redeveloped to house new attractions and hotels.
What are the long-term disruptions from the GSMP?
There will be two disruptions flowing from the GSMP.
First, construction reduces footfall. GENS started losing market share around 2022. This coincided with the start of major construction works in Sentosa.
Source: Bloomberg (2026)
The second disruption?
Second, new attractions will introduce more competition.
Although there are no details yet, the government hinted that the new attraction at Brani West will be similar to GENS’ Universal Studios Singapore (USS).1
Source: Straits Times (2026)
What makes you think that the consensus has not fully appreciated the long-term disruptions?
The construction works will continue through 2045. Yet, sell-side consensus expects revenue growth to return to mid-single digits by 2027.
I’ve read reports from at least 4 local brokers. But none of them mentioned the potential long-term disruptions.
When the GSMP is completed in 2045, the islands are projected to attract twice the current number of visitors.2
I doubt GENS can capture many of the new visitors.
Compared to the new attractions, most of GENS’ attractions are old. They opened in 2010.
I visited during the 2010s, and revisited in 2023. Little has changed. I only noticed aging infrastructure.
GENS is trying to fix this by adding newer attractions like Minion Land and Super Nintendo Land.3
There is a risk that GENS needs to invest more money into refreshing its other attractions just to maintain its number of visitors.
In other words, the new competition may force GENS to reinvest at a lower rate of return.
Potential sale
Why not short GENS?
The controlling shareholder, Genting Berhad (GENT MK) may sell GENS.
In July 2022, MGM Resorts International (MGM 0.00%↑ US) reportedly approached the GENS’ controlling shareholder, the billionaire Lim family, to express its interest in a deal.
Bloomberg reported: “Other potential suitors have also been in the preliminary stages of studying Genting Singapore”
No deal materialised. It appeared the Lim family did not want to sell.
What makes you think they may sell GENS now?
Genting Malaysia Berhad (GENM MK), GENS’ sister company, won a license to operate a casino in New York. It is spending a lot of money to build the casino. We talked about this before here.
But GENT, the parent company of both GENM and GENS, already has a lot of debt. Last month, Fitch downgraded GENT’s credit rating to ‘BBB-’, its lowest investment grade rating.
On 9 October 2026, GENT announced a rights issue to raise MYR 1.3 bn mainly for debt repayment.4
That GENT resorted to a rights issue when the share price is already depressed suggests difficulty in refinancing maturing debt.
If this is truly the case, GENT will need to find more ways to raise funds to meet debt repayments.
Before the rights issue, the group has total borrowings of approximately MYR 45 bn, which comprises short-term borrowings of MYR 10 bn and long-term borrowings of MYR 35 bn.
A sale of GENS could help deleverage. GENT’s stake in GENS is worth ~ MYR 7 bn.
Coming up next
Next week, I’ll be back with 2 to 3 more interesting ideas.
I’ll then analyse the most voted idea from my last post.
Right now, that’s Canada Goose (GOOS CN). WH Group Limited (288 HK) is the runner-up.
Haven’t voted yet? Check out my last post: 2 Attractive Opportunities
Subscribe for 2 to 3 analyses of global SMID equities every week.
Discover overlooked ideas and rethink familiar names.
Published by Andrew Wong, ACA, CFA
Disclaimer
This publication is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. The content herein is a record of my personal research and investment process, and all analysis, forecasts, and opinions expressed are solely my own.
I make no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the information provided. The stock market is highly volatile, and my forecasts, estimates, and assumptions may prove incorrect.
I am not acting as your financial advisor or fiduciary. You should not rely on any information in this publication to make investment decisions. Under no circumstances will I be held liable for any direct, indirect, or consequential losses or damages arising from your reliance on the content of this publication.
At the time of publication, I have no position in GENS SP, neither long nor short. I may change my views, predictions, or personal portfolio positioning at any time without notice.