Seems like there was rather large volume today. I have looked around and can't find even a whisper of any new news. So perhaps information has leaked about the earnings next week or the data breach.
This is an interesting company! Especially given the re-acceleration and insider buys. I wasn't aware the insider buy signals of management in UK and other western countries wasn't as strong as a signal (usually I look for 5+ insiders both executives and directors to buy before I get interested).
How did you calculate this company trades at 7% FCF yield? And is the thesis that either:
1. The earnings compound and the market recognizes this is a better company and rerates it OR
2 The earnings compound and the market ignores it, causing the stock price to remain flat until it gets to a stupid price, ie 10%+ FCF yield and then a buyer emerges?
Zishi,
Thanks for reading and your questions. I appreciate that!
(1) I estimated free cash flow to firm =
LTM OCF - investment in intangibles - incremental tax under 24% CIT
= 160 - 10 - 14
= MYR 136 mn
Against enterprise value of MYR 1,630 mn, this is around 7% to 8% FCF yield.
(2) I think the most likely scenario is a combination of both.
Earnings inflect stronger, market starts re-rating, Creador finds another buyer to pay a premium to takeover the entire company.
CTOS is tanking - but I can't find any news since the data leak. Are you aware of anything? Are you buying more with this drop?
Not aware too. Might buy more if I can find out why the share price tanked
Mind if I ask what % CTOS is of your portfolio?
Seems like there was rather large volume today. I have looked around and can't find even a whisper of any new news. So perhaps information has leaked about the earnings next week or the data breach.
Yup, I suspect so too. But on the other hand, such a huge volume might be too obvious.
I hold ~3% at cost
Well there we go - https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/announcements/company_announcement/announcement_details?ann_id=3714551
Obviously not ideal, but I don't think this looks too bad? Seems like the drop was maybe overdone? What are your thoughts on increasing now?
Wait for the news. Malaysia is a opaque market.
What do you mean? No news at the moment. Perhaps a leak, or just a large holder reducing. Hopefully no news and earnings are ok...
Chart never lies. Some kind of information is gone out wait for that.
I think the most likely scenario is a large shareholder being forced to sell.
If someone is trading on inside news, moving such high volume in just one day is too obvious.
This is an interesting company! Especially given the re-acceleration and insider buys. I wasn't aware the insider buy signals of management in UK and other western countries wasn't as strong as a signal (usually I look for 5+ insiders both executives and directors to buy before I get interested).
How did you calculate this company trades at 7% FCF yield? And is the thesis that either:
1. The earnings compound and the market recognizes this is a better company and rerates it OR
2 The earnings compound and the market ignores it, causing the stock price to remain flat until it gets to a stupid price, ie 10%+ FCF yield and then a buyer emerges?